An Analysis of The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Profitability of Sharia Commercial Banks in Indonesia, with GDP as an Intervening Variable (2010–2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.9744/petraijbs.9.1.137-150Keywords:
Profitability, Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, Money SupplyAbstract
This research is motivated by the profitability dynamics of Sharia Commercial Banks (BUS) in Indonesia, which have increased despite a slowdown in asset growth and changes in macroeconomic conditions. The study aimed to analyze the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), money supply, and exchange rates on ICB profitability, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serving as an intervening variable. The method used is a quantitative approach, employing time-series data from 2010 to 2024 and analyzing it using path analysis via stepwise regression. The results indicate that the influence of macroeconomic variables on profitability is not entirely direct but operates indirectly through GDP. FDI and the exchange rate have significantly affected profitability, both directly and indirectly, whereas the money supply has not. These findings confirm that GDP is the primary transmission channel linking macroeconomic variables and Islamic banking profitability. Implicitly, this study suggests that Islamic banking performance is highly dependent on real-sector dynamics and macroeconomic stability.
Downloads
References
Ademe, A. (2024). The Impacts Of Political Unrest, Firm-Specific and Macroeconomic Factors On The Financial Performance of the Insurance Industry In Ethiopia During Youth-Led Mass Anti-Government Protests (2014-2022). Ethiopian Journal Of Business And Social Sciences, 7(1), 1–23. Https://Doi.Org/10.59122/164F59LK
Aisyah, E. N., & Roziqin, M. K. (2025). How Does Sustainable Growth Rate Affect the Financial Performance Of Islamic Banking? Evidence in the Southeast Asia Region. Jurnal Aplikasi Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 11(3), 869–869. Https://Doi.Org/10.17358/JABM.11.3.869
Akbar, M., & Nugraha, R. (2025). Analysis The Impact Of Liquidity Ratios, Activity Ratios, And Leverage Ratios On Profitability With Firm Size As A Moderating Variable (An Empirical Study Of Transportation Sector Companies Listed On The Jakarta Stock Exchange From 2018 To 2022). Journal Of Social Research, 4(3), 413–428. Https://Doi.Org/10.55324/JOSR.V4I3.2454
Almaqtari, F. A., Al-Homaidi, E. A., Tabash, M. I., & Farhan, N. H. (2019). The Determinants Of Profitability Of Indian Commercial Banks: A Panel Data Approach. International Journal Of Finance And Economics, 24(1), 168–185. Https://Doi.Org/10.1002/IJFE.1655;JOURNAL:JOURNAL:10991158;SUBPAGE:STRING:ACCESS
Arifin, Y. (2018). Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Nilai Tukar Dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 5(4), 474–483. Https://Doi.Org/10.15294/Edaj.V5i4.22184
Arikunto, S. (2006). Prosedur Penelitian: Suatu Pendekatan Praktik. Rineka Cipta.
Asteriou, D., Masatci, K., & Pilbeam, K. (2016). Exchange Rate Volatility And International Trade: International Evidence From The MINT Countries. Economic Modelling, 58, 133–140. Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2016.05.006
Athanasoglou, P. P., Brissimis, S. N., & Delis, M. D. (2008). Bank-Specific, Industry-Specific And Macroeconomic Determinants Of Bank Profitability. Journal Of International Financial Markets, Institutions And Money, 18(2), 121–136. Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.INTFIN.2006.07.001
Aulia, N. P., & Nur Aisyah, E. (2023). Analysis Of The Influence Of Financing, Inflation, And The Amount Of Money Supply On The Profitability Of Syariah Bank In Indonesia. Perisai: Islamic Banking And Finance Journal, 7(2), 278–292. Https://Doi.Org/10.21070/Perisai.V7i2.1668
Boonkuntinat, P., & Wongpunya, N. (2019). The Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment And Macroeconomic Variables On Commercial Banks Performance In Thailand [Chulalongkorn University]. Https://Doi.Org/10.58837/CHULA.IS.2019.13
Borio, C., Gambacorta, L., & Hofmann, B. (2017). The Influence Of Monetary Policy On Bank Profitability. International Finance, 20(1), 48–63. Https://Doi.Org/10.1111/INFI.12104
Collins, A. M. (2022). Return Measures As A Link Between Financial Statements. Https://Doi.Org/10.1142/S1094406022500111
Creswell, John W. (2011). Research, Educational.
D’Souza, A., & R, C. (2024). Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On Business Failure: An Empirical Study Of Indian Companies. Shodhkosh: Journal Of Visual And Performing Arts, 5(6), 2123–2130. Https://Doi.Org/10.29121/Shodhkosh.V5.I6.2024.2918
Deleidi, M., & Levrero, E. S. (2019). The Money Creation Process: A Theoretical And Empirical Analysis For The United States. Metroeconomica, 70(4), 552–586. Https://Doi.Org/10.1111/MECA.12238
Demir, F., & Razmi, A. (2022). The Real Exchange Rate And Development Theory, Evidence, Issues And Challenges. Journal Of Economic Surveys, 36(2), 386–428. Https://Doi.Org/10.1111/Joes.12418
Dewi, F. A., & Sudarmawan, B. N. (2022). Finance Performance: Reinvestigation Through Intellectual Capital And Good Corporate Governance. 2(December), 106–122.
Dona, E., Hidayati, H., Aswan, K., & Oktavian, R. (2022). Berpengaruhkah Jumlah Uang Beredar, Suku Bunga, Ekspor Dan Impor Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia? Jurnal Ekobistek, 11(4), 355–360. Https://Doi.Org/10.35134/EKOBISTEK.V11I4.411
Egbunike, C. F., & Okerekeoti, C. U. (2018a). Macroeconomic Factors, Firm Characteristics And Financial Performance: A Study Of Selected Quoted Manufacturing Firms In Nigeria. Asian Journal Of Accounting Research, 3(2), 142–168. Https://Doi.Org/10.1108/AJAR-09-2018-0029
Egbunike, C. F., & Okerekeoti, C. U. (2018b). Macroeconomic Factors, Firm Characteristics And Financial Performance A Study Of Selected Quoted Manufacturing Firms In Nigeria. Https://Doi.Org/10.1108/AJAR-09-2018-0029
Elseoud, M. S. A., Yassin, M., & Ali, M. A. M. (2020). Using A Panel Data Approach To Determining The Key Factors Of Islamic Banks ’ Profitability In Bahrain Using A Panel Data Approach To Determining The Key Factors Of Islamic Banks ’ Profitability In. Cogent Business & Management, 7(1). Https://Doi.Org/10.1080/23311975.2020.1831754
Eltayeb Elfaki, K., Dwi Handoyo, R., Hannafi Ibrahim, K., Eltayeb, K., Strielkowski, W., & Morley, B. (2021). The Impact Of Industrialization, Trade Openness, Financial Development, And Energy Consumption On Economic Growth In Indonesia. Economies 2021, Vol. 9, Page 174, 9(4), 174. Https://Doi.Org/10.3390/ECONOMIES9040174
Gavrikova, E., Volkova, I., & Burda, Y. (2020). Strategic Aspects Of Asset Management: An Overview Of Current Research. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(15), 9–11. Https://Doi.Org/10.3390/Su12155955
Gazi, M. A. I., Karim, R., Senathiraja, A. R. Bin S., Ullah, A. K. M. M., Afrin, K. H., & Nahiduzzaman, M. (2024). Bank-Specific And Macroeconomic Determinants Of Profitability Of Islamic Shariah-Based Banks: Evidence From New Economic Horizon Using Panel Data.
Hajiyeva, S., Ibrahimov, Z., Nasirli, N., Pashazade, N., & Afkhan, M. B. (2026). Ensuring The Balance Between Sustainability And Profitability In The Corporate Financial Management System: Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, And Bank Performance. BUSINESS PERSPECTIVES, 21(1), 16–30. Https://Doi.Org/10.21511/Bbs.21(1).2026.02
Hartini, T., Lidyah, R., & Safitri, N. (2024). The Comparison Of Islamic And Conventional Banking In Ownership Structure And Interest Rates In Indonesia. IJBE (Integrated Journal Of Business And Economics), 8(1), 652–666. Https://Doi.Org/10.33019/IJBE.V8I1.688
Hidayat, A. M., Purwanda, E., Hadijah, H. S., & Sodik, G. (2024). Impact Of Exchange Rates, Inflation, Foreign Direct Investment, Government Spending, And Economic Openness On Exports, Imports, And Economic Growth In Indonesia. Journal Of Infrastructure, Policy And Development, 8(6). Https://Doi.Org/10.24294/JIPD.V8I6.3270
Husen, M. S., & Fahlevi, R. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi Dan Nilai Tukar Mata Uang Asing Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah Indonesia. At-Tamwil: Islamic Economic And Finance Journal, 03(02), 148–162. Http://Repository.Uinsu.Ac.Id
Jaapar, A. M., Hamid, N. A. A., & Chukari, N. A. (2025). The Determinant Of Islamic Bank Profitability And Stability In Malaysia. International Journal Of Management, Finance And Accounting, 6(1).
Jehan, N., Nawaz, F., & Zeb, A. (2023). Nexus Between Pakistani Firm’s Profitability And Foreign Direct Investment. Global Social Sciences Review, 8(2), 150–164. Https://Doi.Org/10.31703/GSSR.2023(VIII-II).15
Khusnul, K., Imam Masyari, M., Nur Adila Hikam, M., & Taufiq Abadi, M. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 2(1), 1–8. Doi: Https://Doi.Org/10.61722/Jssr.V2i1.635
Komite Nasional Ekonomi Dan Keuangan Syariah (KNEKS). (2025). Laporan Perkembangan Keuangan Syariah Indonesia. Https://Www.Kneks.Go.Id
Koniah, B., Shabnatul, L., Fatiyatul, M., & Agus, E. S. (2023). Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Syariah Di Indonesia Tahun 2011-2021. Jurnal Bintang Manajemen, 1(2), 228–238. Https://Doi.Org/10.55606/JUBIMA.V1I2.1458
Kung’u Mwangi, F. (2013). The Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Financial Performance Of Aviation Industry In Kenya A Research Project Report Submitted In Partial Fulfillment Of The Requirement For The Award Of Degree Of Master Of Science In Finance, University Of Nairobi.
Lusiana, E. D., Pramoedyo, H., & Sudarmawan, B. N. (2022). Spatial Quantile Autoregressive Model: Case Study Of Income Inequality In Indonesia. 51(11), 3795–3806.
Meidi, L., & Tannia, T. (2025). Factors Influencing Bank Profitability: A Study Of Indonesian Commercial Banks. Petra International Journal Of Business Studies, 8(1), 88–97. Https://Doi.Org/10.9744/Petraijbs.8.1.88-97
Miranti, T. (2018). Faktor Rasio Keuangan Terhadap Sustainability Perbankan Di Indonesia: Menggunakan Regresi Logistik. 17(2), 107–116.
Mubarok, F., Wibowo, M., & Latif, S. D. H. (2024). Safeguarding Stability And Enhancing Profitability: The Case Of Islamic Banking In Indonesia. International Journal Of Islamic Economics And Finance (IJIEF), 7(January), 95–112.
Olalere, O. E., Bin Omar, W. A., & Kamil, S. (2017). Bank Specific And Macroeconomic Determinants Of Commercial Bank Profitability: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria. International Journal Of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486), 6(1), 25. Https://Doi.Org/10.20525/IJFBS.V6I1.627
Pertiwi, S. N., Jamaludin, J., Wicaksono, I. H., Lestari, H. S., & Leon, F. M. (2023). The Effect Of Digitization Transformation On Financial Performance: A Case Study Of Banking Companies In Indonesia. Journal Research Of Social Science, Economics, And Management, 3(3), 620–635. Https://Doi.Org/10.59141/Jrssem.V3i3.547
Razzaque, M. A., Bidisha, S. H., & Khondker, B. H. (2017). Exchange Rate And Economic Growth: An Empirical Assessment For Bangladesh. Journal Of South Asian Development, 12(1), 42–64. Https://Doi.Org/10.1177/0973174117702712
S, N. K., & Jogish, D. (2023). A Study On Return. On Equity & Return On Assets At Featherlite Product Private Limited With Respect To Office Equipments, Rajanukunte. Interantional Journal Of Scientific Research In Engineering And Management, 07(10), 1–11. Https://Doi.Org/10.55041/Ijsrem26666
Sabrina, I., Yenti, F., & Husni, A. (2021). Pengaruh Variabel Ekonomi Makro Nilai Tukar Rupiah Dan Inflasi Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Umum Syariah Di Indonesia. AL-ITTIFAQ: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah, 1(1), 52. Https://Doi.Org/10.31958/Al-Ittifaq.V1i1.3268
Setyowati, L., & Sugiharto, D. C. (2022). The Effect Of Return On Assets, Company Growth And Debt To Equity Ratio On Company Value. Indonesian Journal Of Economy, Business, Entrepreneuship And Finance, 2(2), 132–144. Https://Doi.Org/10.53067/IJEBEF.V2I2.62
Suseno, S. (2002). Uang Pengertian, Penciptaan, Dan Peranannya Dalam Perekonomian (Issue 1).
Tan, Y., & Floros, C. (N.D.). Bank Profitability And GDP Growth In China: A Note. Retrieved September 28, 2025, From Http://Eprints.Hud.Ac.Uk/Id/Eprint/17220/Http://Eprints.Hud.Ac.Uk/
Udeh, E., Ibrahim, D., & Sesay, B. (2025). The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment And Economic Growth: A Review Of The Literature (1994-2023). 8(1). Https://Doi.Org/10.51386/25815946/Ijsms-V8i1p107
Utami, M., & Sihotang, M. K. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi Dan Jumlah Uang Beredar Terhadap Profitabilitas Perbankan Syariah Di Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen Akuntansi (JUMSI), 4(3), 802–814. Https://Doi.Org/10.36987/JUMSI.V4I3.4147
Yousaf, M., & Dey, S. K. (2022). Best Proxy To Determine Firm Performance Using Financial Ratios: A CHAID Approach. Review Of Economic Perspectives, 22(3), 219–239. Https://Doi.Org/10.2478/Revecp-2022-0010
Yunizar, M., & Sukmana, R. (2020). Hubungan Antara Foreign Direct Investment Dan Perbankan Pada Perekonomian. Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori Dan Terapan, 7(11), 2089. Https://Doi.Org/10.20473/Vol7iss202011pp2089-2105
Additional Files
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Rahmadani Aidil Fitrohcahya, Barianto Nurasri Sudarmawan
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Petra IJBS (e-ISSN: 2621-6426) is published by Master of Management program, School of Business and Management, Petra Christian University, Indonesia (MM SBM PCU).
